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Project Manston · Investment proposal · October 2026
We propose to buy Manston Airport in Kent from a capital-constrained owner and build it out in contracted stages. Investors buy the option near cost, not the forecast.
Executive summary
A consented widebody runway 56 miles from the M25. A new one would cost up to £300m.
About £35m spent since 2019, including the £16.5m purchase. Now seeking offers above £150m, and still unfunded against a ~£750m programme.
Government backs airport growth, but Heathrow's third runway is not due until 2039.
Liège handled 1.32m tonnes in 2025, up 14%. East Midlands handled 413,664 t in FY25/26.
Build capital is released only against signed anchor contracts and approvals.
Estate sales return capital early. Mature UK airports trade at 16–20x EBITDA.
The investment case, narrated. Opens in a new tab.
Market
The UK moves about 2.7 million tonnes of air cargo a year. Most flies in the bellies of passenger jets. Dedicated freighters have almost nowhere to land near London, so cargo is trucked across the Channel.
Annual tonnes, drawn to scale. Sources: STAT Times; Air Cargo Week; Cargo Newswire; Metro; Airports International.
The leakage
With no dedicated freight airport in the South East, UK shippers fly cargo into continental hubs and truck it across the Channel, both ways. Liège, Leipzig, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris CDG, Brussels and Cologne earn the landing fees, handling and jobs. The UK pays for the lorries.
of UK air freight is thought to be trucked across the Channel (AviaSolutions for Thanet DC, 2016)
a year still forecast to be trucked to European airports, even with a third runway (York Aviation)
a year of extra trucking cost by 2050, before lost handling, jobs and tax (York Aviation)
of its UK imports flown into mainland Europe and trucked in; only 20% flown direct (Steer case study)
Liège handled 1.32 million tonnes on 28,822 cargo movements in 2025, up 14%, as a dedicated cargo airport serving markets beyond Belgium. Heathrow's air freight to and from the EU fell 46% between 2000 and 2019 (CAA data, IBA), which the International Bureau of Aviation reads as cargo shifting to road.
No public source splits Liège's tonnage into UK imports and exports, so we have estimated it. If about 20% of UK air freight is trucked, and 2.7m t is flown direct, about 0.6–0.7m t a year moves by road between the UK and continental hubs, both ways. Liège handles about 14% of the tonnage at the seven main hubs, which puts ~70–120k t a year of UK imports and exports through Liège alone.
| Step | Assumption | Result |
|---|---|---|
| UK air cargo flown direct | CAA rolling year to Q3 2025 | 2.7m t |
| Share trucked via the continent | ~20% of all UK air freight (AviaSolutions); range 18–22% | 0.6–0.76m t |
| Liège share of main-hub tonnage | 1.32m t of ~9.5m t across Frankfurt, Paris CDG, Amsterdam, Leipzig, Liège, Cologne and Brussels | ~14% |
| UK flow through Liège | Trucked UK tonnage × Liège share, rounded | ~70–120k t |
Yeats estimate, to be tested in diligence with a road-feeder study of Channel flows and forwarder interviews. Hub tonnages are approximate 2024–25 figures.
Some figures predate 2020 and come from the DCO examination (2015–2021). Sources: AviaSolutions (2016); York Aviation (2015) via RSP's need case (2019); IBA for RSP (2021); Air Cargo News (Jan 2026).
Slots
Every freighter take-off or landing at Heathrow or Stansted uses a slot that a passenger flight could fly. Heathrow runs at its cap of about 480,000 movements, with 99% of slots used, and slot pairs trade for £20–40m or more. Freighters belong at a freight airport.
Full-freighter air transport movements, CAA data via IBA (2021). East Midlands 23,202 shown for comparison. 2019 is the last normal year; Covid distorts 2020.
Yeats illustration. Assumes 176 passengers per Heathrow movement (2024 average) and treats every 730 movements a year as one daily slot pair.
Heathrow's £49bn expansion (£33bn for the runway and terminals) is not due until 2039. Manston can take freighters off London's runways this decade.
CILT forecasts UK air cargo growing from 2.24m t in 2023 to 3.04–3.68m t by 2035, up 35–64%. Manston's full build is designed for more than 1m t a year.
Heathrow handled cargo worth £215.6bn in 2024, 72% of UK air cargo by value. Air carries about 41% of the UK's non-EU trade by value.
Manston does not replace a third runway. It removes freight from the slot argument and gives the UK dedicated freighter capacity while the hub expands. Sources: IBA (2021); IAG paper to the CAA (May 2026); Head for Points (Aug 2025); CILT (Apr 2025); STAT Times (May 2025); Steer for Airlines UK (2018); Isle of Thanet News (Jan 2026).
Policy landscape
The government is pro-growth: Gatwick's second runway was approved in September 2025 and cleared on appeal in August 2026. But new big-airport capacity is bellyhold, and it arrives late. The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport called the government's freight thinking "inadequate" in June 2026.
*Extension to 2029 requested. A 2029 opening is RSP's unfunded target. Sources: Planning Geek (Sept 2026); gov.uk; Air Cargo Week; Kent Online.
The asset
Area to be confirmed against title
× 61 m, widebody capable
widebody freighter stands and a 65,000 m² terminal, consented
of consented logistics development
| Feature | Detail |
|---|---|
| Consent | Development Consent Order (SI 2022/922) in force since September 2022; final since May 2024 |
| Restoration | Runway restoration up to £20m, against up to £300m to build a new one (RSP) |
| Airspace | Outside London's congested airspace; CAA change process at Stage 3 of 7 |
| Access | M2/A299 to the M25; HS1 from Ramsgate; Dover and Thames Gateway within reach |
| Live today | HM Coastguard search-and-rescue helicopter base since January 2026 |
Sources: RSP, Reopening Manston; RSP flyer; Isle of Thanet News; DCO 2022 (SI 2022/922).
Situation
Airport closes; losses had run at about £10,000 a day
RSP (formed July 2016; Niall Lawlor a director) takes over RiverOak's project
RSP buys the site for £16.5m; inspectors later recommend refusal
Transport Secretary grants the DCO
High Court quashes the decision for inadequate reasons
Niall Lawlor resigns from the RSP board
DCO re-granted by a minister, against the planners' advice
Final legal challenge dismissed; consent secure
Opening slips to 2029; "final discussions" with a European funder
Spring funding target missed; extension sought to September 2029
8 September 2027 is the start deadline. Without an extension or a start on site, the consent lapses.
Sources: Kent Online; Isle of Thanet News; New Civil Engineer; Companies House; DCO 2022.
The bear case
| Objection | Evidence | Our response |
|---|---|---|
| Need not proven | Planning inspectors (2019) and Arup (2022) found no demonstrated need | We do not underwrite RSP's forecast; we build only against signed contracts |
| Thin history | Peak of 43,026 t in 2003, inbound only; three past failures | Past owners had a runway and nothing else; we add stands, sheds and handling |
| Night limits | No take-offs or scheduled landings 23:00–06:00; cap of 17,170 cargo movements a year | Target day freighters: e-commerce, perishables, outsized, defence, charter |
| No funder in 10 years | Spring 2026 funding target missed; cost estimate ~£750m | That is why the entry price is attractive; we stage the capital |
| Big-airport growth | Gatwick R2 approved and cleared on appeal; Heathrow R3 in policy | Both add bellyhold capacity; Heathrow R3 not until 2039 |
Sources: New Civil Engineer; Kent and Surrey Bylines; Airports International; DCO 2022 Sch. 2.
Investment thesis
Each phase is a decision point. Capital for the next phase is committed only when the previous one has delivered.
Gate to Phase B: implemented consent, airspace approval in sight, anchor interest documented.
Gate to Phase C: signed anchors, fixed-price contracts, financial close on ~£150m.
The estate returns capital independently of tonnage.
What you have to believe
Move the sliders to see the stabilised EBITDA needed for value to equal total programme cost. Raise 1 investors do not need to believe the full programme; they need to believe a consented, implemented runway with anchor interest is worth more than a site bought near cost.
Reference points: £650m (RSP flyer), £750m (RSP, 2026). 16–20x is the range for recent UK airport deals.
Valuation benchmarks
| Airport | Year | Buyer | Stake | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh | 2024 | VINCI | 50.01%, £1.27bn | ~20x |
| Bristol, Birmingham | 2025 | Macquarie | 55% and 26.5% | ~16x |
| London City | 2025 | Macquarie | 25% | >20x |
| Budapest | 2024 | Corvinus, VINCI | 100%, €4.3bn EV | >20x |
These are mature passenger airports; a new cargo airport earns these multiples only once income is stable and contracted. London City was a debt recapitalisation. Sources: ION Analytics; ALG; VINCI.
Capital and structure
Yeats working estimates, subject to price, QS costing and the vendor's accounts.
Indicative terms, subject to contract.
Entry price
Our Raise 1 range is set by our bid, close to RSP's cost, not by its asking price. Move the slider to see how the entry price changes the raise and the premium paid over cost.
RSP's cost to date ~£35m (including the £16.5m purchase in 2019, the DCO and legal challenges). Asking: offers above £150m. From Yeats discussions with RSP, October 2026; to be verified against RSP's accounts.
Other Raise 1 costs held at the midpoint: MoD, start and airspace £15m; holding £7m; reserve £4m; legal and diligence £1.5m; stamp duty at non-residential rates.
Downside protection
Price set against RSP's ~£35m spent to date, verified in its accounts, not against the £150m+ asking price or the £750m programme.
Airside spend waits for signed anchors and approvals. Raise 1 is the maximum exposure until then.
Starting works before 8 September 2027 implements the consent. The start needs MoD sign-off first, so we fund that work early.
The 2019 sale carried a 10-year aviation-only covenant, and other uses need new planning. We give it no alternative-use value.
Risks and mitigants
| Risk | Mitigant |
|---|---|
| Vendor won't deal | We walk. RSP's deadline and unfunded position set the timetable, not ours. |
| Start deadline | Raise 1 funds a start before 8 September 2027, once the MoD signs off; an extension is upside. |
| Airspace | CAA process at Stage 3 of 7; two designs consulted on; 12-month float in the plan. |
| MoD condition | The MoD says it still needs the capability; relocation funded in Raise 1; RSP seeks removal. |
| Demand | No airside build without signed anchors; estate income does not depend on tonnage. |
| Cost overrun | Estimate rose from £400m to £750m; fixed-price contracts and QS costing before Raise 2. |
| Local opposition | Consent is final; night and noise limits sit in the DCO; 144 jobs were lost at closure. |
| Counterparties | Full diligence on RSP shareholders, loans, board changes and any former-director claims. |
Sources: Kent Online (May 2026); Isle of Thanet News (Jan and May 2026); Express (May 2026).
Sponsor and origination
RSP solved the hardest problem, the consent. What it lacks is capital and a delivery model. That is what this team brings.
Commercial real estate developer across industrial, self-storage, hotels and living. Active in Thanet with Engine Works Park, Margate.
Formerly with RiverOak Investment Corp, RSP's US predecessor; RSP director July 2016 to September 2021. Based in New York; leads on the deal for Yeats.
Mountford Pigott (architects), CSA (cost consultants), Belshaws (project management). To appoint: airport operator, aviation and legal advisers.
Disclosure: Niall Lawlor is a former RSP director. Sources: Companies House; Kent Online; Isle of Thanet News.
Next steps
New York
Sources